Russia-Ukraine tensions may create additional depreciation pressure on movable and risky asset classes in the markets. At the moment, we do not make a clear forecast about regional geopolitical developments; however, we highlight them as a potential downside risk from an economic perspective. Along with the tension between Russia and NATO, geopolitical risks were added to the concerns of global inflation and monetary tightening, and the risk appetite was seriously damaged. In the tension between Russia and Ukraine, warnings from the US and statements of US and British diplomats in Ukraine that they will evacuate their families are followed.
While Iran, Russia and China started joint exercises in the Indian Ocean, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that they demanded that the US return to Russia’s demands regarding Ukraine with an official document this week. Moscow has informed the United States that all NATO troops must be withdrawn from the former Soviet countries and their former Communist allies Bulgaria and Romania. In addition, Russia’s Baltic navy has started the exercise with 20 ships. Earlier, in the Macro Perspective dated January 10, we highlighted the following items in Russia’s demands from the US and NATO alliance:
“The United States of America undertakes to refuse further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and to admit states that were formerly part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics into the alliance.”
“The United States of America will not establish military bases, use their infrastructures for any military activity, or develop bilateral military cooperation on the territory of states that are former members of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and that are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “
The market has to monitor factors such as geopolitical risks and persistent negative real returns. If the current geopolitical situation accelerates, further declines in risk assets, particularly the ruble and other Russian assets, may be triggered. The risks related to oil and natural gas shipments will also shape the movement of the relevant commodity prices over the supply problem. We can see that Germany and Continental Europe are exposed to some integration effects through gas dependency, because if it reflects in the form of a slowdown in production, the event will not be limited to energy prices, either. Alternative instruments such as gold can be evaluated in the risk concept. However, the EM basket may face more volatility as Fed tightening is also on the horizon and the current geopolitical situation may lead to further inflation and the US weaponization of financial instruments. The commodity shock has the potential to cause an actor like the Fed to tighten harder. Financial system risks related to the Russian embargo need to be evaluated separately.
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